History of Exorbitant Privilege
The concept of exorbitant privilege was first introduced by French economist Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in the 1960s. The US dollar had recently replaced the British pound as the world’s reserve currency, and d’Estaing believed that this gave the US an unfair advantage in the global economy.
At the time, the US was running a large trade deficit, meaning that it was importing more goods and services than it was exporting. This deficit was financed by the demand for US dollars by other countries, who needed them to settle international transactions. This meant that the US could effectively print money to pay for its imports, without facing the same constraints as other countries.
Over time, this imbalance became known as the “Triffin dilemma,” named after Belgian economist Robert Triffin. Triffin argued that as the US continued to issue more dollars to finance its trade deficit, it would eventually undermine confidence in the currency, leading to its eventual collapse.
However, despite these concerns, the US dollar has remained the dominant global currency for over half a century, and the US has continued to benefit from the exorbitant privilege that comes with being the world’s reserve currency.
Benefits of Exorbitant Privilege
One of the most significant benefits of exorbitant privilege is that it allows the US to borrow money at lower interest rates than it would otherwise be able to. This is because investors are willing to lend money to the US at lower rates, knowing that they can easily convert their dollars back into their own currency if necessary.
This allows the US government to finance its budget deficits at lower costs, which in turn helps to keep interest rates low for US consumers and businesses. It also means that the US can borrow more money than it would otherwise be able to, without facing the same constraints as other countries.
Another benefit of exorbitant privilege is that it gives the US greater influence over global trade and investment. For example, the US can use its control over the dollar to impose economic sanctions on other countries, or to shape the terms of international trade agreements.
Finally, exorbitant privilege provides the US with greater financial stability than other countries. This is because the demand for dollars provides a stable source of funding for the US economy, even during times of crisis. For example, during the 2008 financial crisis, investors flocked to US treasuries, providing a stable source of funding for the US government and allowing it to avoid a sovereign debt crisis.
Implications of Exorbitant Privilege
Despite these benefits, there are also some potential downsides to exorbitant privilege. One of the most significant concerns is that the US could become over-reliant on its position as the world’s reserve currency, leading to complacency and an inability to address some of the underlying structural challenges facing the US economy.
For example, the US has a large trade deficit and a high level of debt relative to its GDP. These are long-standing problems that have not been effectively addressed in recent years, in part because the US has been able to rely on its position as the world’s reserve currency to finance its deficits and maintain its economic dominance.
There are also concerns that the US could lose its position as the world’s reserve currency in the future, opening the door for other countries to challenge US economic dominance. This could happen if other countries develop alternative currencies or if there is a global shift away from the US dollar.
Overall, exorbitant privilege is a double-edged sword. While it provides the US with significant economic benefits and has helped to support the US economy for decades, it also creates structural issues and poses long-term risks. As such, policymakers will need to carefully balance the short-term benefits against the long-term risks, in order to ensure that the US economy remains strong and stable for decades to come.